SAP SE (SAP): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - SAP SE is positioned as a leading enterprise software company that has successfully transitioned to a cloud-first model, enhancing its growth potential and market visibility [2][5]. Financial Performance - As of October 10th, SAP's share price was $265.53, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 41.67 and 33.11 respectively [1]. - Cloud revenue increased by 26% year-over-year, while cloud ERP grew by 33% year-over-year, indicating strong demand for its services [4]. - The cloud backlog has risen nearly 30% to €18 billion, providing visibility for future growth [4]. - Free cash flow is expected to rebound to €8 billion in FY2025, supported by expanding margins and a solid net cash position [4]. Customer Retention and Market Position - Over 85% of new bookings are cloud-based, with a customer retention rate exceeding 98%, which creates significant switching costs and a durable competitive advantage [3][4]. - SAP's systems are deeply integrated into corporate workflows, reinforcing its position in the market [3]. Growth Strategy - The company aims for long-term double-digit growth through the migration of over 300,000 customers to cloud subscriptions, expansion of AI features, and entry into new verticals and SMEs [5]. - Investment cycles are winding down, and operational efficiency is expected to improve as cloud operations scale [5]. Market Perception - Despite being undervalued in U.S. markets due to its operational complexity and European roots, SAP is recognized for its scale, resilience, and potential for compounding growth [5][6]. - The stock has depreciated approximately 9.23% since previous bullish coverage, but the long-term growth thesis remains intact [7].