传美联储拟“松绑”华尔街 大摩：高盛(GS.US)等交易型银行最受益

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is proposing a revised version of the Basel III final rules that would significantly relax capital requirements for large Wall Street banks, with estimated capital increases ranging from 3% to 7%, much lower than the previously proposed 19% increase in 2023 and the 9% from last year's compromise [1] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The revised Basel III rules aim to clarify the capital banks need to reserve to withstand economic downturns, with strong opposition from Wall Street banks against the original proposal due to concerns over increased loan costs and competitive positioning [1] - The Federal Reserve plans to announce the new proposal as early as Q1 2026, led by Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, with expectations that the final rules could be released by Q4 2026 after a public comment period [2] Group 2: Capital Positioning - As of Q2 2025, large banks are estimated to hold $157 billion in excess capital, and even with a 7% increase in capital requirements, they would still retain at least $146 billion in excess capital [3] - The proposed reduction in capital requirements is particularly beneficial for banks with large trading portfolios, such as Goldman Sachs [3] Group 3: Market Implications - If the capital reduction is less than expected, it may have a slight negative impact on bank demand from institutional mortgage-backed securities investors, but could positively affect Ginnie Mae and Fannie Mae [4] - The clarity and finalization of regulatory rules are seen as positive signals that could help banks optimize their excess capital allocation more quickly [5]