【财经分析】产区新季大豆上市：价格稳中有涨 “优质优价”格局凸显

Core Viewpoint - The soybean market in Heilongjiang, China's main soybean production area, is experiencing a clear differentiation in supply and demand, with low-protein soybeans being abundant while high-protein soybeans are in tight supply, indicating a trend towards quality-oriented production [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The domestic soybean spot market is showing a stable yet slightly strengthening trend, with farmers reluctant to sell and traders actively purchasing, leading to higher prices at the grassroots level [2]. - The current purchase price for soybeans in Northeast China ranges from 1.75 to 2.20 yuan per jin, with prices for high-protein soybeans exceeding 2.3 yuan per jin [2]. - As of now, the soybean harvest in Heilongjiang for the 2025 season is nearly complete, with a progress rate of 98%-99% [2]. Group 2: Policy Support - Policy incentives are boosting farmers' enthusiasm for soybean planting, with an expected stable planting area of over 68 million acres in Heilongjiang, accounting for approximately 47% of the national total [3]. - Various subsidies are provided to support soybean production, including direct subsidies, crop rotation subsidies, and production subsidies, which collectively enhance the production capacity [2]. Group 3: Quality and Pricing - There is a notable contrast in profitability between high-quality and lower-quality soybeans, with high-quality soybeans yielding significantly higher profits [4]. - The market is signaling a preference for high-quality soybeans, which is driving traders to prioritize the purchase of these products, thereby increasing overall soybean prices [4]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The future soybean market will be influenced by the interplay between the pressure of new grain entering the market and the demand for storage improvement [5]. - Key variables affecting the long-term market trends include state reserve pricing, progress in China-U.S. trade negotiations, and fluctuations in the futures market [6].