The Motley Fool·2025-10-24 09:00Core Insights - Palantir has experienced significant stock growth, rising over 2,600% since the start of 2023, but this increase may not be entirely based on business performance [1] - Palantir's current market cap is approximately $420 billion, ranking it among the top 25 largest companies globally, but it is expected that ASML and AMD will surpass this valuation by the end of 2026 [2] - Palantir's stock is considered highly overvalued, trading at 277 times forward earnings, which raises concerns about its sustainability [6][8] Company Performance - Palantir's software is gaining traction, with users reporting success, yet the stock price has decoupled from the business fundamentals, leading to an inflated valuation [6][9] - ASML and AMD are positioned closely to Palantir's market cap, with ASML at $400 billion and AMD at $378 billion, both companies are also engaged in the AI sector [10] - ASML holds a technological monopoly in extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, which are critical for chip production, suggesting strong future performance linked to AI infrastructure demand [11] Future Projections - If Palantir maintains a 50% revenue growth rate and achieves a 35% profit margin, it would still trade at 46 times 2030 earnings, indicating a high premium [8] - AMD's recent contract wins could enhance its position in the AI market, but significant financial impacts from these deals may not be realized until 2026 [12] - Both ASML and AMD are viewed as more reasonably valued compared to Palantir, with potential for improved valuations as business successes materialize [13][15] Investment Outlook - The expectation is that by the end of 2026, both ASML and AMD will surpass Palantir in market valuation, making them attractive investment options [16]