Glut Hysteria Clashes with Missing Oil Barrels

Core Viewpoint - A significant oil glut is anticipated in the energy commodities market, with varying predictions on its magnitude, while the IEA has acknowledged an inability to account for 1.47 million barrels of supply [1][2]. Supply Predictions - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a daily supply overhang of 2.35 million barrels for this year and an unprecedented surplus of 4 million barrels daily by 2026 [2]. - The IEA's admission of 1.47 million barrels daily being unaccounted for in August raises questions about the accuracy of its supply predictions, suggesting potential discrepancies in the estimated overhang [3]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects a supply overhang of 1.9 million barrels daily for this year, increasing to 2.1 million barrels daily by 2026, marking upward revisions from previous forecasts [6]. Market Reactions - BloombergNEF has adjusted its supply growth forecast for 2026, predicting an oversupply of 3.3 million barrels daily, while estimating a 1.16 million barrels daily oversupply for this year [5]. - Reports indicate that there are 1 billion barrels of crude oil on tankers at sea, suggesting a significant amount of oil is seeking buyers in an oversupplied market [7].