Economic Indicators - The inflation estimate stands at 3.1%, significantly above the 2% target, marking the highest reading since February [1] - There is an expectation that the Federal Reserve will implement a rate cut in the upcoming meeting, with consensus numbers likely to remain unchanged [2][7] - The core services inflation has shown some stickiness, but a slowdown is anticipated [3] Labor Market Trends - Recent announcements indicate workforce reductions across various sectors, with 16,000 job cuts reported from one company alone [4] - There is a divide among Federal Reserve officials regarding concerns over labor market risks versus persistent inflation [6] - The labor market is perceived to be weakening, which is expected to drive further rate cuts into the first quarter of next year [15] Economic Growth - The Atlanta Fed's GDP tracker indicates nearly 4% growth for the current quarter, despite concerns about various economic sectors [10] - Economic growth appears to be increasingly narrow, driven by higher-income consumers, which raises concerns about vulnerability to economic shocks [12][13] - The outlook for future rate cuts remains optimistic, with another cut anticipated in December, contingent on the reopening of the government and availability of data [14]
Clark: We're kind of flying blind without much data from the Fed
Youtube·2025-10-24 11:04