全球避险资金涌入 瑞郎连涨逼近干预区间

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc has significantly appreciated recently, driven by safe-haven demand, leading to speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may have intervened to curb its strength [1][2]. Group 1: Swiss Franc Performance - The Swiss Franc has experienced its ninth consecutive weekly increase, marking its best performance in two years [1]. - The exchange rate of the Swiss Franc against the Euro surged to a near ten-year high, approaching the critical level of 0.92 [1]. - Despite the Swiss policy rate remaining at zero, the Swiss Franc has seen the highest appreciation against the US Dollar among major developed currencies over the past month [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Risk-averse investors are increasingly seeking alternatives to the US Dollar and Japanese Yen, with the Swiss Franc being a primary choice due to its stable economy and good governance [2]. - Analysts from Societe Generale noted that the risk of intervention by the Swiss National Bank is at its highest level [2]. - UBS analysts believe that the SNB may have already begun market intervention to lower the Swiss Franc's exchange rate [2]. Group 3: Swiss National Bank's Position - The Swiss National Bank does not comment on whether it intervenes in the currency market, and data proving intervention will be released later [3]. - The recent US-Swiss agreement not to manipulate exchange rates allows the SNB to focus on price stability while potentially using intervention to address deflationary pressures [3]. - The options market indicates that the SNB's unilateral actions may slow the appreciation of the Swiss Franc rather than reverse its upward trend [3]. Group 4: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The SNB's meeting minutes suggest that deflation is not a threat, with inflation expected to rise moderately in the coming months [4]. - Despite the Swiss Franc's strength against the US Dollar, it remains relatively stable against the Euro, with geopolitical shocks potentially driving funds into the Franc [4]. - Analysts expect the SNB to continue intervening in the 0.90-0.92 range to manage the Swiss Franc's strength [4].