3950点！沪指收于十年新高，顶流券商ETF（512000）成吸金热点，三季报强催化，“年中红包”再扩容

Market Overview - On October 24, the market opened high and continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.71% to close at 3950.31 points, marking a ten-year high. Market sentiment quickly improved, with trading volume approaching 2 trillion yuan [1] - The brokerage sector showed active performance, with most stocks closing in the green. Guosheng Financial Holdings led with a 4.79% increase, while Changcheng Securities rose over 3%. Eleven stocks, including Dongfang Caifu and CICC, gained more than 1% [1] ETF Performance - The 386 billion yuan broker ETF (512000) saw a strong morning surge, with prices rising over 1% before fluctuating and closing up 0.84%, reaching the 60-day moving average. The total trading volume for the day was 1.442 billion yuan, showing a significant increase [1][3] Earnings Expectations - Market focus is currently on the third-quarter reports of brokerages, with expectations for rapid growth in earnings due to active trading and a recovering market. The valuation remains low, attracting significant capital inflow. The broker ETF (512000) has seen a cumulative inflow of 1.665 billion yuan over the past five days, reaching a new historical high of 38.6 billion yuan, with an increase of over 10 billion yuan this year [3] - As of October 24, the price-to-book ratio (PB) of the CSI All Share Securities Index tracked by the broker ETF (512000) is 1.57, positioned in the lower range of the past ten years, indicating attractive valuation [3] Company Earnings Reports - From the disclosed earnings, Huaxin Securities reported a third-quarter revenue of 850 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 281 million yuan, up 83.77%. Dongwu Securities and Dongguan Securities expect net profit growth of 50%-65% and 77.77%-96.48% respectively for the first three quarters [5] - Overall, it is predicted that the net profit growth of listed brokerages in the third quarter will exceed 50%, reflecting a robust growth trend characterized by "increasing speed and optimized structure" [5] Dividend Distribution - Ahead of the third-quarter report disclosures, listed brokerages are actively distributing dividends. Data shows that 29 listed brokerages have announced a total dividend of 19.103 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 45.63%, signaling strong industry profitability [6] - Analysts suggest that with the upward trend in the capital market and increasing risk appetite, the investment value of brokerage stocks is gradually being confirmed, making it a relatively undervalued sector with high growth potential [6] Investment Strategy - The broker ETF (512000) and its linked funds are designed to passively track the CSI All Share Securities Index, encompassing 49 listed brokerage stocks. Nearly 60% of the portfolio is concentrated in the top ten leading brokerages, while 40% includes smaller brokerages with high earnings elasticity, making it an efficient investment tool for both large and small brokerage stocks [6]