十大首席展望“十五五”经济增长

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) is crucial for China's long-term economic goals, aiming for modernization and GDP per capita to reach levels of moderately developed countries by 2035 [1] Economic Growth Targets - Analysts predict that the average annual real GDP growth target for the next five years may be set between 4.5% and 5% [1][2] - The government is likely to continue the trend of not setting specific growth targets, focusing instead on high-quality development and resilience [2][5] - Specific forecasts from various institutions suggest a range of 4.5% to 5% for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, with some analysts proposing a target of around 4.5% for 2026 and gradually shifting to about 4% by 2030 [2][3] Importance of High-Quality Development - The emphasis on high-quality development is highlighted, with a focus on improving technological self-reliance and addressing critical sectors such as integrated circuits and advanced materials [3][4] - The government aims to balance supply-side reforms with demand-side improvements, addressing issues like domestic supply and demand mismatches [4][5] Long-Term Economic Goals - The goal of achieving a doubling of GDP or per capita income by 2035 is deemed feasible, with projections indicating that the average annual GDP growth should remain above 4.4% over the next decade [3][4] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to reflect a policy direction that is both expansive and proactive, with a focus on maintaining economic stability and growth [5][6]