Inflation Rose Again Last Month, Delayed Data Shows

Core Insights - Inflation increased in September, with consumer prices rising 3% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, slightly below Wall Street's expectations [2] - Core consumer prices also rose 3% annually and 0.2% monthly, again underperforming economist projections [2] Inflation Data - Gas prices saw a significant rise of 4.1% in September, marking the largest monthly increase among tracked items, while overall energy prices increased by 1.5% [3] Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet on October 28 and 29 to discuss potential interest rate cuts, having previously lowered rates by a quarter-point to a range of 4% to 4.25% [4] - Minutes from the last meeting indicated a division among policymakers regarding the number of additional rate cuts needed, with expectations of rates potentially dropping to between 3.5% and 3.75% by December [4] Employment Data Insights - Job reports have been impacted by a government shutdown, with estimates suggesting a decline in job additions, including a reported addition of only 17,000 jobs in September [5] - The private payroll processing firm ADP indicated a decrease of 32,000 private-sector jobs, the largest drop since March 2023 [5] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.3% for September, matching August's rate, with Wall Street estimating a higher addition of 55,000 nonfarm jobs [5] Background Context - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Social Security Administration (SSA) were recalled to produce September's inflation data, which is critical for calculating the annual cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security payments [6] - There are uncertainties regarding the release of other economic data due to the government shutdown, including wholesale price data and unemployment reports [6]