民生证券首席经济学家陶川：四中全会背后的5个新亮点

Core Points - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held from October 20 to 23, 2025, in Beijing, focusing on the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development [1] - The meeting is significant as it sets the stage for a new five-year journey amid increasing uncertainties and aims to achieve the goal of basically realizing socialist modernization by 2035 [1] Group 1 - The economic growth targets in the 15th Five-Year Plan are expected to be more clearly defined compared to the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on anchoring the current potential growth rate and setting specific economic growth expectations for the next five years [1] - The emphasis on "daring to struggle and being good at fighting" highlights the need to create favorable conditions for economic development in a complex and uncertain environment, addressing both external competition and internal reform obstacles [2] - The 15th Five-Year Plan places new productive forces at a more central strategic position, aiming to strengthen China's leadership in global high-tech fields and focusing on future industrial development, including the goal of becoming a "space power" [2] Group 2 - The plan aims to boost consumption by exploring new supply and demand strategies, with a focus on improving the consumption environment and innovating consumption scenarios in areas such as domestic products, sports events, cultural tourism, and the silver economy [2] - Ensuring the successful completion of the growth targets set in the 14th Five-Year Plan is a current priority, with a gradual easing of policies expected in the fourth quarter to achieve the annual economic growth target of around 5%, requiring a GDP growth of approximately 4.5% in the fourth quarter [3] - The focus will be on implementing existing measures, with additional tools likely reserved for deployment next year, reflecting a pragmatic approach to transition from past to future planning [3]