美国9月通胀数据全线低于预期，增强美联储降息前景

Core Insights - The latest inflation data for September in the U.S. shows a lower-than-expected performance across the board, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures [1][2]. Inflation Data Summary - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September increased by 0.3% month-over-month, which is below both August's increase of 0.4% and market expectations [2]. - Food prices rose by 0.3% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year, while energy prices increased by 1.5% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, with gasoline prices up 4.1% month-over-month but down 0.5% year-over-year [4]. - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year, both figures being 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month and market expectations [4][5]. Housing and Vehicle Costs - Housing costs, which account for about one-third of the CPI, increased by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year [7]. - New car prices rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 0.8% year-over-year, while used car and truck prices decreased by 0.4% month-over-month but increased by 5.1% year-over-year [7]. Government and Market Reactions - The CPI report is the only official economic data released during the U.S. federal government shutdown, as it is necessary for calculating the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) by November 1 [7]. - The White House commented that the inflation report exceeded economists' expectations, highlighting stable prices and wage growth outpacing inflation [7]. - Following the CPI report, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting rose to nearly 99%, with only a slight chance of maintaining current rates [7].