通胀数据姗姗来迟，美联储本月降息板上钉钉？

Core Points - The U.S. federal government has been in a shutdown for 23 days, marking the second-longest shutdown in history, impacting economic data availability and federal employees [1][2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September was released on October 24, showing a year-on-year increase of 3%, which is below the expected 3.1% and higher than the previous month's 2.9% [1][5] - The delay in key economic data due to the government shutdown has forced the market to rely on alternative indicators, such as the ADP employment report [2][3] Economic Data Impact - The Senate rejected a temporary funding bill, leading to continued government shutdown and affecting the release of critical economic data [2] - The Labor Statistics Bureau has suspended data collection and reporting, delaying the September non-farm payroll report and CPI data [2][4] - The absence of official data is complicating monetary policy decisions for the Federal Reserve, as highlighted by Fed officials [4][7] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The CPI report indicated a 0.3% month-on-month increase, lower than the expected 0.4%, with core CPI rising 0.2% month-on-month [5] - The market is anticipating a 98.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting due to lower-than-expected inflation data [7] - Fed Chair Powell's comments suggest a shift in focus from inflation control to balancing growth and employment, indicating a potential for further rate cuts [7][8]