IMF：2025年上半年亚太地区经济体经济增速超预期

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a resilient economic growth of 4.5% for the Asia-Pacific region in 2025, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the April forecast [1] - The forecast for mainland China's economic growth in 2025 is set at 4.8%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the previous prediction [1] Economic Trends - The report highlights a significant change in the global landscape due to extensive tariff increases by the United States in 2025, impacting trade dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region [1] - The necessity for policies that promote trade openness and foreign direct investment, along with reforms to enhance competitiveness, is emphasized as crucial for maintaining trade as an engine of economic growth [1] Investment and Capital Allocation - The report indicates that since the global financial crisis, there has been a slowdown in economic growth and an intensification of global trade fragmentation, underscoring the need for Asia-Pacific countries to strengthen domestic economic growth drivers [1] - High investment rates in the region have historically relied on a favorable financial structure for capital-intensive growth, but recent trends show increasing capital misallocation and declining investment returns [1] - Issues such as inefficient financial intermediation and rising debt rollover phenomena are contributing to these trends, necessitating policy measures to broaden financing channels for a wider range of enterprises and support timely restructuring of unsustainable debt [1]