俄罗斯，降息50个基点

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the key interest rate by 50 basis points to 16.50%, marking the fourth rate cut this year and a total reduction of 450 basis points from the beginning of the year [1] - The current inflation indicators have not shown significant changes, with the annual CPI remaining above the 4% inflation target, and inflation expectations remain high [3] - The Central Bank forecasts that the annual inflation rate will decrease to 4.0%—5.0% by 2026, with long-term tight monetary policy continuing [3] Group 2 - Economic growth is showing signs of slowing down, with positive but decelerating growth in overall economic activity during the third quarter, and mixed dynamics across various sectors [4] - Domestic demand is supported by increased household income and budget spending, leading to a faster growth in consumer activity [4] - The labor market remains tight, with wage growth outpacing labor productivity growth, and the unemployment rate at historical lows [4] Group 3 - The monetary market remains tight, with rising interest rates since mid-September reflecting market participants' expectations for future key rate paths [4] - The Central Bank identifies increased inflation risks in the medium term, primarily due to deviations from balanced economic growth and rising inflation expectations from VAT increases [4] - Geopolitical tensions are highlighted as a significant source of uncertainty affecting inflation dynamics [4]