Two Views of Inflation Seen in September's Delayed CPI Print

Economic Overview - The recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed inflation cooler than expected, leading to a slight dip in the 10-year yield, which is currently hovering around the key 4% level [1][3][9] - On a relative basis, the CPI came in below expectations, which was positively received by the market, resulting in a rally in treasuries [2][3] Inflation Insights - Despite the positive relative performance, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, indicating ongoing concerns [3][4] - The CPI report revealed mixed trends, with some components like owner's equivalent rent decreasing, while goods prices, particularly in apparel, are starting to rise, potentially due to tariff impacts [7][8] Interest Rate Expectations - There is an expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut, with the likelihood of this occurring next week or possibly in December, depending on economic developments [4][6] Fixed Income Opportunities - The fixed income market presents attractive opportunities, particularly in the municipal bond sector, which offers tax-exempt interest income and generally high credit quality [10][11] - The current yield environment, especially after recent years, is considered attractive for investors seeking income options [9][10]