Sept CPI inflation data shows prices rose at 0.3%, Fed rate cut and market outlook

Market Overview - US stock futures are rising significantly following the September consumer price index (CPI) report, with the S&P 500 set to open at an all-time high as prices increased by 3% year-over-year, slightly below the expected 3.1% [1][5][10] - The market is now pricing in a 99% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October and a 96% chance for December, indicating strong investor sentiment [10][12] Federal Reserve Insights - The CPI report is seen as a bullish catalyst for the market, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates due to the cooler-than-expected inflation data [8][12] - Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also showed a decrease from 3.1% to 3%, indicating progress, although it remains above the Fed's 2% target [12][14] - The lack of additional economic data due to the government shutdown creates uncertainty for future Fed decisions, particularly regarding the job market [15][18] Corporate Earnings - Intel reported better-than-expected third-quarter earnings, with revenues of $13.7 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $0.23, leading to a nearly 6% increase in pre-market shares [24][26] - The company is experiencing improved sales in its PC and AI data center businesses, although it still faces challenges in its foundry operations [24][26][28] Trade Relations - President Trump has halted trade talks with Canada, citing an anti-tariff advertisement that featured former President Ronald Reagan, which adds to the uncertainty in trade relations [2][19] - The ongoing trade discussions and their implications for tariffs remain a significant concern for the market, as they could impact business operations and investor sentiment [20][21] Company-Specific Developments - Target announced it will eliminate 8% of its corporate roles due to underperformance and market share losses, which analysts view as a necessary move [30][31] - Deckers, the maker of Hoka and Uggs, reported disappointing sales guidance, forecasting full-year sales of approximately $5.35 billion, reflecting cautious consumer behavior [31][32] - Procter & Gamble exceeded sales estimates in its latest quarter, particularly in beauty and grooming categories, although its baby and family care segment showed flat volume [32][33]