楼市进入筑底关键期：改善性需求成为新房市场支撑 “强者恒强”分化格局愈发清晰

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market has entered a critical bottoming phase since the second half of 2021, driven by intensive policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market [1][3]. Market Changes - The cumulative sales of new residential properties during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period are projected to reach approximately 5 billion square meters [1][2]. - The supply-demand relationship in the real estate market has shifted, with a significant portion of demand now being met through second-hand housing, while new housing is increasingly catering to improvement needs [2][6]. Policy Impact - Since the second half of 2021, the sales of new residential properties have been on a continuous decline, with a notable policy shift in September 2024 aimed at stabilizing the market [3][6]. - In the first nine months of 2025, the sales area of new residential properties was 6.58 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, but the decline rate has narrowed compared to the previous year [6][10]. Market Resilience - The second-hand housing market has shown greater resilience, with transaction volumes in key cities increasing by 10% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, reaching a peak share of 68% in July [6][10]. - Despite the increase in transaction volume, second-hand housing prices have been on a downward trend for 41 consecutive months [6][10]. Market Segmentation - A clear "stronger stronger" market segmentation is emerging, with first-tier cities experiencing a rise in new housing prices, while second and third-tier cities face price declines [11][13]. - The investment focus of real estate companies has shifted towards core cities, with significant land auction prices being recorded in cities like Shanghai and Beijing [14][16]. Demand Trends - Improvement demand has become the core support for the new housing market, with larger unit types (120-144 square meters) accounting for 30% of transactions in key cities [17][21]. - High-end market performance has been notable, with significant increases in transactions for properties priced between 10 million to 20 million yuan in cities like Beijing and Chengdu [20][21]. Future Outlook - The upcoming report titled "Prospects for the 15th Five-Year Plan: Exploring the 'Golden Pit' of the Non-Restricted Cycle Real Estate Market" is set to be released on October 30, 2025, providing further insights into the industry [21][22].