Will Biogen Beat on Q3 Earnings? Leqembi, Skyclarys Could Hold the Key

Core Viewpoint - Biogen is expected to exceed expectations in its third-quarter 2025 results, with earnings estimates at $3.89 per share and sales at $2.34 billion, following a previous quarter where earnings surpassed expectations by 39.2% [1] Factors Impacting Biogen - Lower sales of multiple sclerosis (MS) drugs are anticipated, particularly due to generic competition for Tecfidera and biosimilar competition for Tysabri, but this may be offset by revenue growth from new products [2][3] - The decline in MS revenue is expected to be more pronounced in the second half of the year, especially in the ex-U.S. market due to intensified competition [3] - Sales estimates for Tecfidera are $158 million (Zacks Consensus) and $162.9 million (model estimate), while Tysabri's estimates are $370 million and $346.9 million, respectively [3] Performance of Other Drugs - Vumerity's sales are projected to rise due to increased demand, with estimates at $173 million (Zacks) and $169.6 million (model) [4] - Spinraza's sales are likely to decline, with estimates at $373 million (Zacks) and $360 million (model) [4] - Sales of Skyclarys for Friedreich's ataxia are expected to improve, driven by demand growth and geographic expansion, although U.S. growth may be tempered by Medicare discount dynamics [5][6] - Zurzuvae's sales are also expected to rise due to strong patient demand, following its EU approval in September [7] Collaboration and Revenue Streams - Revenues from contract manufacturing, royalties, and Alzheimer's collaborations are expected to increase, particularly from Leqembi, which has shown consistent sales growth [8][10] - Leqembi's sales have improved sequentially over the past four quarters, with its recent approvals in various markets contributing to this growth [10][11] Earnings Surprise History - Biogen has a history of beating earnings estimates, achieving an average surprise of 10.16% over the last four quarters, although its stock has declined by 1.9% this year compared to a 9.2% industry increase [12] Earnings Prediction Model - The earnings prediction model indicates a likely earnings beat for Biogen, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +1.08% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [14][15]