New Gold to Report Q3 Results: What's in the Cards for the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - New Gold (NGD) is expected to report its third-quarter 2025 results on October 28, with earnings per share estimated at 17 cents, reflecting a 112.5% increase from the previous year's earnings of 8 cents [1][6]. Earnings Performance - New Gold has consistently exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters, achieving an average earnings surprise of 56.7% [2][4]. - The earnings surprise history shows reported earnings of 11 cents, 2 cents, 7 cents, and 8 cents for the last four quarters, with respective estimates of 10 cents, 1 cent, 6 cents, and 4 cents [3]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current Earnings ESP for New Gold is 0.00%, and it holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating uncertainty regarding an earnings beat this quarter [4][5]. Market Conditions - Gold prices averaged around $3,500 per ounce in Q3 2025, a 41% year-over-year increase, driven by U.S. trade uncertainties and strong central bank demand [7]. - Copper prices also saw a 15% year-over-year increase, contributing positively to New Gold's expected performance [7]. Production Outlook - New Gold projects consolidated gold production for 2025 to be between 325,000 and 365,000 ounces, a 16% increase year-over-year [8]. - In the first half of 2025, the company produced 130,781 ounces, which is 6% lower than the previous year's production of 139,496 ounces [9]. - Q3 production is expected to range between 97,110 and 117,109 ounces, indicating a growth of 24-49% compared to 78,369 ounces produced in Q3 2024 [10]. Mine-Specific Production - Rainy River's gold production is projected at 265,000 to 295,000 ounces for 2025, with an expected output of 84,744 to 99,744 ounces in Q3, reflecting a 37-61% increase from 61,892 ounces in Q3 2024 [11]. - New Afton is expected to produce 60,000 to 70,000 ounces in 2025, with Q3 production anticipated at 12,365 to 17,365 ounces [13]. Cost Expectations - All-in sustaining costs (AISC) are projected to be between $1,025 and $1,125 per ounce in 2025, a 17% decrease at the midpoint due to higher production and lower operating costs [14]. - Total cash costs per gold ounce sold are expected to be in the range of $600 to $700, with costs decreasing throughout 2025 [15]. Stock Performance - New Gold's stock has increased by 160.5% year-to-date, outperforming the industry average growth of 115% [16].