Should You Expect Accelerated Sales Growth for Mattel (MAT) in 2026?

Core Insights - Longleaf Partners Fund reported a return of -0.33% in Q3 2025, underperforming the S&P 500's 8.12% and Russell 1000 Value's 5.33% [1] - The fund focuses on investments in real assets and brands that generate growing free cash flow (FCF) per share, with expectations of a rise in FCF multiple from ~10x to the mid-teens [1] Company Performance - Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT) experienced a one-month return of 13.49% and a 52-week gain of 0.95%, with a market capitalization of $6.18 billion as of October 23, 2025 [2] - In Q3 2025, Mattel's net sales decreased by 6% to $1.74 billion, with a 7% decline in constant currency [4] Sales and Market Dynamics - North American sales for Mattel fell by 16% due to retailers adjusting orders amid tariff uncertainties, while international sales increased by 7% [3] - Despite lower-than-expected sales, Mattel showed positive point-of-sale sell-through, indicating healthy underlying demand for toys [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates modest sales growth in 2025, with acceleration expected in 2026 due to new movie releases and digital games [3] - Management plans to utilize nearly all FCF for share repurchases, targeting $340 million in the second half of 2025, representing over 5% of shares outstanding [3]