Fed Rate Cut Odds Jump to 97% as CPI Comes in Cool at 3%

Group 1: Inflation Data and Economic Impact - The United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.0% year-over-year in September, below economists' expectations of 3.1%, marking the first time inflation has reached or exceeded 3% since January [1] - The September inflation increase was primarily driven by rising gas and food prices, with a monthly increase of just 0.3%, below the projected 0.4% [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, moderated slightly to 3.0% annually with a monthly gain of only 0.2% versus expectations of 0.3% [2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Following the CPI release, the odds of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut surged to 97% on Polymarket [1] - An anonymous trader opened long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum worth $155 million immediately after the CPI release, indicating strong risk appetite in the market [5] - Crypto analysts suggested that lower-than-expected inflation readings could drive Bitcoin to a new all-time high within the next 30 days [6] Group 3: Bitcoin's Market Position - Farzam Ehsani, co-founder and CEO of VALR, noted that favorable macro developments could support a potential rally for Bitcoin toward $130,000-$132,000 in Q1 2026 [3] - Ehsani emphasized Bitcoin's dual role as both a hedge and an investment play, which could enhance its appeal in the current macro environment [3] - Global M2 money supply continues to explain more than half of Bitcoin's price variance, reaffirming Bitcoin's role as an anti-money-printing asset [6]