CAKE to Post Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?

Core Insights - The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) is set to report its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on October 28, with a history of beating earnings estimates in the past four quarters, averaging a surprise of 15.2% [1] Estimate Revisions - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is 60 cents, reflecting a 3.5% increase from 58 cents in the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue expectations are approximately $912.9 million, indicating a 5.5% rise from the previous year's quarter [2] Factors Influencing Quarterly Results - The company's performance is expected to benefit from steady demand, disciplined cost management, and sustained brand relevance, with strategic menu innovations like "Bowls" and "Bites" contributing to comparable sales growth [3] - Engagement from the Cheesecake Rewards program is anticipated to enhance top-line performance, with total revenues projected between $905 million and $915 million [3] Revenue Contributions - Strong contributions from North Italia Restaurants and Other FRC are expected, with revenues predicted to rise 14.6% to $82.3 million and 34.3% to $90 million year-over-year, respectively [4] Profitability Outlook - Profitability is expected to remain healthy due to operational excellence, improved labor retention, and favorable commodity costs, with four-wall margins reaching 18.5% in the prior quarter [5] - The company aims to maintain margins within a long-term target range of 16% to 18% through efficiency and guest satisfaction [5] Cost Challenges - Modest wage inflation, higher medical costs, and increased pre-opening expenses may partially offset profitability gains, with labor expenses projected to rise 5.5% year-over-year to $328.2 million [6] Earnings Prediction - The model predicts an earnings beat for Cheesecake Factory, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +3.85% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7][9] - The expected Q3 EPS is $0.60 on revenues of $912.9 million, with menu enhancements and loyalty engagement likely aiding comparable sales growth [8]