Strong Portfolio Aids Cisco's Security Revenues: More Upside Ahead?

Core Insights - Cisco Systems' security business is experiencing significant growth, with revenues increasing by 59% in fiscal 2025 to $8.09 billion, representing 19.5% of total revenues [1][10] - The acquisition of Splunk has enhanced Cisco's security offerings, particularly in Threat Intelligence, Detection, and Response (TIDR) and Extended Detection and Response (XDR) [2][10] - Cisco's security revenues for Q4 fiscal 2025 reached $1.95 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, driven by the integration of Splunk and the expansion of Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) solutions [3][10] Security Business Performance - The integration of Splunk has led to a 14% year-over-year growth in new logos for Splunk, with Cisco adding 750 new customers through its security solutions in the reported quarter [3][10] - Orders for Cisco's security business grew in the mid-single digits, indicating positive growth prospects [3] Future Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q1 fiscal 2026 service revenues is projected at $2.24 billion, reflecting an 11% growth compared to the previous year [4] - The earnings estimate for Q1 fiscal 2026 is set at 98 cents per share, suggesting a 7.7% increase from the same quarter last year [13] - For fiscal 2026, the earnings estimate is $4.04 per share, indicating a 6% growth from the prior year [14] Competitive Landscape - Cisco faces strong competition in the security sector from companies like Fortinet and Okta, which have established innovative portfolios and strong market positions [5][6][7] - Fortinet is recognized for its extensive AI capabilities and has evolved into a comprehensive security ecosystem [6] - Okta's AI-powered offerings are gaining traction, particularly in identity management and security [7] Stock Performance - Cisco's stock has appreciated by 18.6% year-to-date, underperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector, which has returned 24% [8][9] - Cisco's stock is currently trading at a premium, with a trailing 12-month price/book ratio of 5.93X compared to the industry's 5.69X [15]