铝价上扬：“平民金属”的新风口

Core Viewpoint - Aluminum is undergoing a value reassessment, transitioning from being viewed as a "common metal" to being recognized as a strategic asset in the global energy transition, akin to copper [2][6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global aluminum prices have surged over 6% since October, reaching nearly three-year highs, driven by structural changes in supply and demand [1][3]. - Domestic aluminum production capacity is nearing its ceiling, with a utilization rate of 99.41%, indicating limited room for future growth [4][5]. - The demand for aluminum is being bolstered by emerging industries such as electric vehicles and solar energy, which are offsetting declines in traditional sectors [4][5]. Price Influences - The recent price increase is linked to macroeconomic uncertainties, including the U.S. government shutdown and rising gold prices, which have positively impacted non-ferrous metal prices [3][8]. - The correlation between copper and aluminum prices is strong, with rising copper prices enhancing aluminum's market demand as a substitute [5][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that aluminum prices will likely remain high and may gradually increase, supported by stable supply and demand dynamics [7][8]. - The potential for aluminum to replace copper in various applications is growing, particularly in electrical wiring, due to its cost advantages [6][7]. - The global aluminum market is expected to face challenges from macroeconomic factors and geopolitical risks, which could influence price stability [8].