September CPI leaves Fed on course to cut rates twice this year, says WSJ's Nick Timiraos

Group 1 - The recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report has reduced uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's upcoming meetings, particularly the one in December, indicating a potential shift in the path of interest rate cuts [2][3] - The argument for maintaining a hawkish stance has weakened, as there may not be sufficient data before the December meeting to support aggressive rate hikes [3] - The inflation rate is currently at 3%, which is lower than earlier fears of 4%, suggesting that the economic outlook may not be as dire as previously thought [4][5] Group 2 - Concerns about the Federal Reserve creating a stock market bubble through continued rate cuts are not seen as a significant worry at this time [6] - The housing finance market is not exhibiting easy financial conditions, indicating mixed signals across different economic sectors [7] - There is a rising trend in delinquencies for subprime auto loans and FHA loans, highlighting vulnerabilities in certain segments of the economy [7] Group 3 - A 50 basis point rate cut is not currently being considered, as inflation remains at 3%, and significant labor market deterioration would be required to prompt such a move [9][10] - The upcoming October payroll numbers may be affected by previous economic conditions and the government shutdown, complicating the labor market data [10]