Stocks Climb on Strength in Energy Producers

Economic Impact - The US government shutdown is in its fourth week, affecting market sentiment and delaying key economic reports, including unemployment claims and the September payroll report [1] - Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed, potentially increasing jobless claims and raising the unemployment rate to 4.7% [1] Trade Relations - Markets are focused on US-China trade talks, with President Trump threatening to increase tariffs on Chinese goods if no deal is reached by November 1 [2] Sanctions - The Trump administration has imposed sanctions on Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, Russia's largest oil producers, due to insufficient commitment to peace in Ukraine, which may restrict their international business operations [3] Company Performance - Molina Healthcare's stock has dropped over 20% after revising its full-year adjusted EPS forecast down to $14.00 from $19.00, below the consensus of $18.65 [4][12] - International Business Machines (IBM) is down more than 4% after reporting a smaller-than-expected increase in its Q3 hybrid cloud unit [4][15] - Tesla's stock is down more than 3% after reporting Q3 EPS below consensus [4][15] Market Movements - Stock indexes are rising, led by energy producers, following a more than 5% increase in WTI crude oil prices due to sanctions on Russian oil companies [5] - Dow Inc. is up more than 11% after reporting Q3 adjusted operating EBITDA of $868 million, exceeding the consensus of $759.7 million [5][13] - Honeywell International's stock is up more than 5% after reporting Q3 sales of $10.41 billion, surpassing the consensus of $10.15 billion [5][14] Earnings Season - The Q3 earnings season is ongoing, with 85% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far beating forecasts, indicating a strong quarter since 2021 [5] - Q3 profits are expected to rise by 7.2% year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years, while sales growth is projected to slow to 5.9% year-over-year [5] Interest Rates - Markets are anticipating a 99% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [6] - T-notes are under pressure due to inflation concerns, with a 5% surge in WTI crude oil prices raising inflation expectations [7][8]