越南前三季度经济增长好于预期

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam's GDP growth reached 8.23% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with a cumulative growth of 7.85% for the first three quarters, marking the fastest growth in three years despite a complex global economic environment [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth Drivers - The strong performance of the manufacturing sector is the core driver of Vietnam's economic growth, supported by robust exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) [1][3]. - Vietnam's total goods import and export volume reached $680.66 billion in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, with exports growing by 16% and imports by 18.8%, resulting in a trade surplus of $16.82 billion [1][2]. Group 2: Export Performance - Exports are a key engine for Vietnam's economic growth, with export value nearing $349 billion in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a 16% year-on-year increase [2]. - Major export categories include computers, electronic products, and components, with export values of $38.41 billion, and mobile phones and components at $22.4 billion [2]. Group 3: Foreign Direct Investment - Vietnam attracted a total of $28.54 billion in foreign investment by September 30, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, with actual FDI reaching $18.8 billion, up 8.5%, marking a five-year high [2]. - The processing and manufacturing sector accounted for 82.8% of the total actual foreign investment, with additional capital for existing projects soaring by 122% to $8.95 billion [2]. Group 4: Domestic Consumption and Business Activity - Domestic consumption has significantly contributed to economic growth, with over 230,000 new or resumed businesses in the first nine months of 2025, a 26.4% year-on-year increase [3]. - The survey of manufacturing and processing enterprises indicated that 40.8% expect improved conditions in Q4, while 41.7% anticipate stable operations [3]. Group 5: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The central bank of Vietnam has maintained stable monetary policy to address inflation and exchange rate fluctuations, demonstrating economic resilience despite currency volatility [3]. - The strong economic growth in Q3 2025 reflects Vietnam's adaptability to global challenges, with coordinated development across industries and a focus on achieving a 10% growth target for 2026 [3][4].