冷冬不能被预测，预计今冬偏暖但冷暖起伏大

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unpredictability of winter temperatures in China, highlighting that while this winter is expected to be warmer overall, significant fluctuations between cold and warm periods are anticipated [1][4]. Summary by Sections Winter Temperature Predictions - The classification of a winter as "cold" or "warm" is determined post-season based on average temperatures across various meteorological stations, with specific criteria for national, regional, and single-station assessments [2][3]. - The article notes that since the 1990s, China has experienced six cold winters, all occurring before 2012 [2]. Current Temperature Trends - Recent monitoring indicates that average temperatures in regions such as northern Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, North China, Northeast China, Huanghuai, and Jianghan have been 1°C to 3°C lower than the same period in previous years, with some areas experiencing drops of 4°C to 5°C [3]. Influencing Factors - The article mentions that the current state of the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean is cooler than usual, which may lead to a La Niña event, typically associated with lower temperatures in China during winter [4]. - However, the impact of global warming has led to instances of warmer winters even during La Niña years, indicating a complex interplay of factors affecting winter temperatures [4][6]. Extreme Weather Events - The article explains that despite the overall warming trend, extreme cold events can still occur due to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, particularly the weakening of the westerly winds that usually contain polar air [5][6]. - This phenomenon suggests that global warming can coexist with severe cold spells, leading to more pronounced temperature fluctuations during winter [6].