楼市进入筑底关键期：改善性需求成为新房市场支撑

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is entering a critical bottoming phase due to intensive policy measures since the second half of 2021, with a projected cumulative sale of approximately 5 billion square meters of new residential properties during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2]. Policy Signals - The real estate market has been in a continuous adjustment phase since the second half of 2021, with a decline in new residential property sales. Policies aimed at stabilizing the market have been implemented, including a focus on stopping the decline and promoting recovery [3][6]. Market Performance - From January to September 2025, the sales area of new residential properties was 6.58 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, but the decline has narrowed by 11.6 percentage points compared to the previous year. The sales revenue was 6.3 trillion yuan, down 7.9% year-on-year, indicating a clear improvement trend despite remaining in negative territory [6][10]. Secondary Market Resilience - The secondary housing market has shown greater resilience, with a 10% year-on-year increase in transaction volume in 30 key cities from January to July 2025. By July, the proportion of secondary housing transactions reached 68%, a record high [6][10]. Market Segmentation - A clear "stronger stronger" market segmentation is emerging, with first-tier cities experiencing price increases in new homes, while second and third-tier cities face price declines. For instance, new home prices in first-tier cities rose by 6.87% year-on-year in September 2025, marking 27 consecutive months of increases [11][13]. Investment Focus - Real estate companies are increasingly focusing their investments on core cities, with significant land acquisition activity in cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Chengdu, leading to record land prices. For example, a land parcel in Shanghai was sold for 34.135 billion yuan, setting a new record for total land price in the country [13][15]. Demand Shift - The demand structure in the new housing market is shifting towards improvement needs, with larger units (120-144 square meters) accounting for 30% of transactions in key cities from January to July 2025. In Beijing, units over 120 square meters made up 42% of sales [16][20]. High-End Market Dynamics - The high-end market is performing well, with significant sales in luxury properties. For instance, over 25 "sunshine plates" (properties sold out on the first day) were recorded in Shanghai, most priced above 100,000 yuan per square meter. However, this segment may face demand exhaustion due to limited overall transaction volume [19][20]. Upcoming Report - The "Prospects for the 15th Five-Year Plan" report will be officially released on October 30, 2025, providing further insights into the real estate industry [21].