国家气候中心首席预报员：预计今冬偏暖，但冷暖起伏大

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the uncertainty surrounding whether this winter will be cold or warm, emphasizing that definitive conclusions can only be drawn after the season ends [2][4]. Summary by Sections Climate Predictions - The determination of a cold or warm winter is based on the average temperature over three months, with specific criteria for single stations, regional, and national assessments [2]. - Since the 1990s, China has experienced six cold winters, all occurring before 2012 [2]. Current Weather Conditions - Recent monitoring indicates that average temperatures in regions such as northern Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, North China, Northeast China, Huanghuai, and Jianghan are 1°C to 3°C lower than the same period in previous years, with some areas experiencing drops of 4°C to 5°C [3]. Influencing Factors - The current state of the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean is cooler than usual, potentially leading to a La Niña phenomenon, which historically correlates with lower temperatures in China during winter [4]. - Despite the likelihood of a colder winter, global warming has led to instances of warmer winters even during La Niña years, indicating a complex interplay of factors affecting winter temperatures [4]. Extreme Weather Events - The article highlights that extreme cold waves can occur even in warmer winters, as public perception is often influenced by significant temperature fluctuations rather than average temperatures [4][6]. - The phenomenon of extreme cold waves is explained by the weakening of the westerly winds due to global warming, allowing polar air to move southward more easily [5][6].