Brazil’s corn ethanol boom is pushing global sugar prices lower

Core Insights - The Brazilian sugar-cane industry is facing significant challenges due to increased competition from corn-based ethanol, leading to a shift in production focus towards sugar even amid low prices [1][9] - Sugar futures have declined by approximately 22% this year, marking the largest annual loss since 2017, with global production expected to exceed consumption by 2.8 million metric tons [3][9] - Brazilian cane millers are projected to produce a record 43 million metric tons of sugar in the upcoming harvest, a 4.6% increase from the previous year, despite the unfavorable market conditions [3][9] Industry Dynamics - The rise of corn ethanol production in Brazil is causing sugar-cane processors to divert more of their crop towards sugar production, as corn-based ethanol is cheaper to produce [5][9] - The share of corn-based ethanol in Brazil's gasoline substitute production is expected to rise from 23% to 32% in the upcoming season, further intensifying competition for sugar-cane processors [5][9] - Analysts indicate that the outlook for record ethanol supplies may lead to lower prices, making sugar production a more favorable option for millers, particularly in São Paulo [6][9] Company Performance - Shares of Raizen, Brazil's largest sugar-cane processor, have decreased by 56% this year, while smaller competitors Jalles Machado SA and Sao Martinho have seen declines of 42% and 37%, respectively [6][9] - Sugar-cane processors have expanded their sugar-making capacity in recent years to capitalize on previous surges in sugar prices, but are now facing a challenging market environment [7][9] - Economists suggest that Brazilian cane millers will have no choice but to increase sugar production in response to the current market dynamics [8][9]