如何解读三季度经济数据︱重阳问答

Economic Growth - The GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2023 is 5.2% year-on-year, with a 4.8% growth in the third quarter, indicating resilience in economic growth [1] - Industrial production showed a strong performance, with the industrial added value increasing by 6.5% year-on-year in September, up 1.3% from the previous month [1] Demand Side - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in real estate and infrastructure investments, while manufacturing investment grew by 4% [2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3% year-on-year in September, but this marks a 0.4 percentage point decline from the previous month, continuing a four-month downward trend [2] - Service consumption remains a bright spot, with total service consumption growth rising to 5.2%, contributing 2.7 percentage points to GDP growth in the third quarter [2] Structural Issues - There are evident signs of weakness in housing prices, with all 70 major cities reporting declines in second-hand housing prices in September, and real estate investment down by 13.9% year-on-year [3] - The GDP deflator index is at -1.07%, remaining negative for over ten consecutive quarters, indicating ongoing structural issues that require further policy support [3] - To ensure a strong start for economic growth in the following year, it is necessary to enhance growth-stabilizing policies [3]