未名宏观｜2025年9月经济数据点评：高质量发展，经济“稳中求进”

Economic Overview - GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 is 5.2%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - In Q3 2025, GDP reached 354,550 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from Q2 2025, but an increase of 0.2 percentage points from Q3 2024 [2][10] - High-tech industries continue to grow rapidly, contributing to the overall economic quality improvement despite external pressures [2][10] Supply Side - Industrial added value in September 2025 increased by 6.5% year-on-year, the highest in three months, driven by improved manufacturing orders and policy effects [3][12] - Manufacturing and high-tech industries show resilience in transitioning towards high-quality development, although global demand uncertainty and low real estate investment pose challenges [3][12] Demand Side - Retail sales of consumer goods in September 2025 grew by 3.0% year-on-year, a decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating weak consumption growth [4][15] - Fixed asset investment from January to September 2025 decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, reflecting policy adjustments and a cautious investment sentiment among enterprises [4][18] - Exports in September 2025 totaled 328.57 billion USD, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, with significant increases in exports to non-U.S. countries, particularly in high-tech products [4][19][21] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September 2025 decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, primarily due to falling food prices, while industrial consumer goods prices showed slight increases [7][26] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.3% year-on-year, but the decline was narrower than in previous months, indicating some stabilization in industrial prices [7][31] Monetary and Financial Conditions - New social financing in September 2025 was 35,296 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.2% year-on-year, reflecting weak overall financing demand [8][34] - M1 growth accelerated to 7.2% year-on-year, indicating improved liquidity and increased corporate demand for short-term financing [8][35] - M2 growth slowed to 8.4% year-on-year, suggesting a stable but cautious monetary supply environment [8][44]