Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-10-25 08:17Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the U.S. CPI in September unexpectedly slowed down, primarily due to a surprising decrease in the housing component, while tariffs continue to moderately push up commodity prices [1] Economic Indicators - The unexpected drop in inflation in September was influenced by disturbances in the housing component [1] - The ongoing government shutdown and a cooling job market suggest a high probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in October, with December also being a baseline scenario for a rate cut [1] Tariff Impact - The current round of tariffs has a relatively small overall impact on inflation but is characterized by a longer-lasting effect [1] - The limited impact of tariffs on inflation suggests that they will not significantly constrain the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates [1] Employment Market - The persistent government shutdown and the expiration of the DOGE buyout plan are expected to impact the fragile U.S. job market in the short term [1] - The Federal Reserve needs to be cautious of the risk of a rapidly weakening job market, reinforcing the expectation of rate cuts in October and December [1]