STANLEY(SZ:002588) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-25 08:36Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit, driven by increased phosphate fertilizer export prices [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 9.29 billion yuan, up 17.9% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 820 million yuan, up 22.7% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded revenue of 2.90 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 31.4% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.9 [1]. - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 210 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.4% but a significant quarter-on-quarter decline of 34.6% [1]. Market Dynamics - The average export price of monoammonium phosphate (MAP) increased by 15.0% year-on-year to approximately 566 USD/ton, while the price for diammonium phosphate (DAP) rose by 30.6% year-on-year to about 777 USD/ton, contributing to the company's profit growth [1]. - The company reported investment income from joint ventures and associates of 80 million yuan in Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 74.7% [1]. Industry Trends - Urea prices have been on a downward trend, with the average market price in Shandong for Q3 2025 at 1,732 yuan/ton, down 6.6% quarter-on-quarter, leading to cautious downstream demand [2]. - The compound fertilizer industry’s operating rate was approximately 38.4% in September, down 5.1 percentage points from the previous month, due to the cautious purchasing behavior influenced by urea prices [2]. Sales and Marketing Strategy - The company has developed a comprehensive sales network across most provincial and county-level regions, with over 1,000 experienced sales personnel and more than 5,000 primary distributors [2]. - The company maintained high sales expenditure, totaling 310 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a sales expense ratio of 3.4% [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 12.14 billion yuan, 14.02 billion yuan, and 15.98 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.3%, 15.5%, and 14.0% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.01 billion yuan, 1.24 billion yuan, and 1.45 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 22.3%, 22.9%, and 16.8% [3]. - Based on the closing price on October 23, the corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 11, 9, and 8 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a "recommended" rating for coverage [3].