Weekly Commentary: Foreshocks

Core Insights - The individual has extensive experience in the investment banking sector, particularly as a "professional bear" for approximately 30 years, indicating a focus on short-selling strategies [1] - The career began in 1989 with a hedge fund in San Francisco, leading to various roles in different firms, highlighting a diverse background in trading and portfolio management [1] - The influence of Austrian economics and macro analysis is emphasized, showcasing a commitment to understanding economic cycles and market dynamics [1] Career Highlights - Initial role as a trader for a short-biased hedge fund in 1989, which provided significant learning experiences during a bull market [1] - Worked with notable firms such as Fleckenstein Capital and East Shore Partners, indicating a strong professional network [1] - A 16-year tenure with PrudentBear, focusing on strategy and portfolio management, which ended in 2014 [1] Educational Background - Graduated summa cum laude from the University of Oregon with majors in Accounting and Finance in 1984, followed by an MBA from Indiana University in 1989 [1] - Early career included a position as a treasury analyst at Toyota during significant economic events, which sparked an interest in macro analysis [1] Analytical Philosophy - The individual believes in the importance of contemporaneous analysis, drawing parallels to historical economic writings, particularly during the Roaring Twenties and Great Depression [1] - Emphasizes the need to understand current global economic conditions, referring to them as an extraordinary "Bubble period" [1]