"Taco交易"再现，机构瞄准投资机会，APEC峰会成关键节点

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation of trade tensions between the US and China has led to the re-emergence of the "Taco trade" strategy, characterized by Trump's pattern of pressuring China with tariffs followed by signals of easing tensions, creating potential investment opportunities [1][4][11] Group 1: Trade Tensions and Market Reactions - The current trade friction is perceived to have a lesser impact compared to April, with the market expected to show greater resilience [2][3] - Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff effective after the APEC summit on November 1 indicates that the summit will be a critical point for negotiations [2][3] - Historical patterns suggest that the time between Trump's threats and subsequent retreats is short, indicating limited windows for market declines [2][3] Group 2: Taco Trade Logic - The "Taco trade" logic remains valid despite increasing tensions, with the potential for negotiations at the upcoming APEC summit [4][6][11] - The market has gained experience and adaptability since the trade war began in 2018, leading to reduced volatility compared to previous instances [3][6] - The current market environment, characterized by "loose monetary and fiscal" policies, differs from April, with investors having more experience in handling such situations [6][7] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The "Taco trade" has historically provided good buying opportunities following market declines triggered by tariff threats [6][8] - The technology sector, particularly in AI and semiconductor industries, is recommended for investment, especially if short-term market corrections occur [6][7] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to face short-term pressure but may present buying opportunities due to its limited exposure to US exports [7][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming APEC summit is seen as a potential venue for US-China negotiations, with expectations that the intensity and duration of the current trade conflict will be limited [5][9] - The market's response to trade tensions is becoming more rational, with diminishing marginal effects from tariff impacts as both sides continue to engage in economic cooperation [11]