杨德龙：新质生产力全面纳入“十五五”规划 本轮科技牛行情有望延续

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session approved the guidelines for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing high-quality development, technological self-reliance, and significant improvements in social civilization and living standards, with a nominal GDP growth rate of approximately 5.4% over the next decade [1][2]. Economic Development Goals - The main objectives for the 15th Five-Year Plan include achieving significant results in high-quality development, enhancing technological independence, deepening reforms, improving social civilization, and advancing the construction of a beautiful China [1][2]. - By 2035, the goal is to elevate China's economic, technological, and national strength significantly, with per capita GDP reaching the level of moderately developed countries [1]. Capital Market Implications - The 15th Five-Year Plan signals positive developments for the capital market, reinforcing investor confidence in China's long-term economic growth and potentially extending the current bull market [2]. - The plan outlines a clear economic development path for the next five years, which is expected to attract more capital into the technology sector, further driving the ongoing technology bull market [2]. Focus on Innovation Industries - The plan highlights the importance of nurturing emerging industries, with a target for the "three new" economy's contribution to GDP exceeding 18% by 2024 [3]. - Key strategic emerging industries include new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy, with the potential to create several trillion-yuan markets [3]. - Future industries such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, and 6G are identified as new growth points for the economy [3]. Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities - The current market is experiencing significant differentiation, with technology innovation sectors seeing substantial gains while traditional sectors lag behind [4]. - The ongoing economic transition is expected to reduce opportunities in traditional industries, which may face overcapacity and operational difficulties [4]. - The rapid growth of household deposits, exceeding 160 trillion yuan, and declining interest rates on bank deposits are likely to drive investors towards the capital market in search of higher returns [5]. Conclusion - The 15th Five-Year Plan is set to inject new momentum into economic development, with a focus on innovation and technology, while traditional sectors may face challenges [4][5].