经济学家张斌：社会的“大钱包”多了，消费会跟着涨

Core Insights - The analysis of the economic situation in the first three quarters of 2023 highlights significant pressures primarily from the demand side, with declines in investment growth across various sectors including manufacturing, public infrastructure, and real estate [3] - Despite the persistent issue of insufficient effective demand, there are positive developments such as the introduction of new policy financial tools amounting to 500 billion yuan, which are expected to support economic recovery in the fourth quarter [3] - The importance of consumer spending is emphasized, with comparisons drawn to stable consumption rates in Europe, the US, and Japan, driven by factors such as rapid growth in household financial assets, improved social security levels, and enhanced social services [3] Economic Analysis - Investment growth has seen a decline, particularly in manufacturing, public infrastructure, and real estate sectors, while consumer growth has also slowed down, accompanied by low price levels [3] - The relationship between nominal GDP and consumer spending is critical, as improved GDP leads to increased disposable income, thereby boosting consumption [4] - The need for new investment opportunities is highlighted, as traditional investment demand decreases with falling marginal returns on capital; identifying new sectors and growth opportunities is essential for maintaining investment levels [4] Recommendations for Demand Expansion - To stimulate consumption, it is crucial to avoid long-term framing of the demand insufficiency issue, learning from Japan's historical context [5] - Short-term cyclical policies are identified as effective tools for influencing consumer behavior and spending [4]