2030 年用电晚高峰或存1750万千瓦供电缺口，江苏如何变负荷为能源

Core Insights - By 2030, if renewable energy and load-side resources do not participate in power balancing, Jiangsu may face a power supply gap of approximately 17.5 million kilowatts during peak usage periods [1] - Jiangsu is experiencing a dual challenge of high load and a high proportion of renewable energy, complicating the construction of a new power system [1] - The development of virtual power plants and smart microgrids is being prioritized to convert industrial loads and electric vehicles into marketable adjustable resources [1][2] Group 1: Current Situation and Challenges - In 2025, Jiangsu's summer peak electricity load is projected to exceed 155 million kilowatts, with wind and solar power installations reaching 110 million kilowatts, accounting for over 45% of the total [1] - The intermittent and volatile nature of renewable energy makes it difficult to meet peak load demands, increasing the requirements for grid regulation and absorption capacity [1] - The current scale and regular utilization of demand-side resources face challenges, including the difficulty of resource aggregation and the inadequacy of incentive measures [3] Group 2: Development of Virtual Power Plants - Virtual power plants aggregate dispersed resources like air conditioners and electric vehicles, acting as a controllable entity to alleviate extreme electricity demand and enhance grid absorption of renewable energy [2] - Jiangsu has made progress in virtual power plant development, with 25 virtual power plants officially participating in the electricity market as of July 1 [2] - The investment required for virtual power plants is significantly lower than traditional power plants, with operational costs ranging from 1.5 to 5 yuan per kilowatt-hour and construction costs between 200 to 400 yuan per kilowatt [2] Group 3: Recommendations for Future Development - Experts recommend enhancing the digital capabilities of virtual power plants to ensure demand-side resources are observable, measurable, adjustable, and controllable [4] - There is a need to improve market mechanisms and establish effective pricing strategies for different flexible resources to encourage investment in virtual power plants [4] - A comprehensive understanding of resource characteristics and market signals is essential for guiding social investment and providing predictable revenue channels for virtual power plants [4]