Sugar Prices Fall to Lowest Levels in More Than 4 Years

Core Insights - Sugar prices have declined significantly, with NY sugar reaching a 4.5-year low and London sugar hitting a 4.25-year low, influenced by increased sugar output in Brazil and expectations of robust global supplies [2][3][4] Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 is down -0.32 (-2.09%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 is down -6.70 (-1.53%) [1] - Sugar prices experienced a temporary recovery due to rising crude oil prices but have since reverted to weakness [2] Supply Dynamics - Brazil's Center-South sugar output increased by +10.8% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons in the second half of September, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 51.17% from 47.73% [3] - Projections indicate Brazil's Center-South sugar production for 2026/27 will rise by +3.9% year-on-year to a record 44 million tons [4] Global Supply Outlook - BMI Group forecasts a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million tons for 2025/26, while Covrig Analytics projects a surplus of 4.1 million tons for 2025/25 [4] - India's sugar production is expected to rebound by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons for 2025/26, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [5]