Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold is experiencing its largest increase since 2018, driven by a restructuring of gold pricing logic, transitioning from a commodity to a financial asset safety attribute [1] - The global trust in the US dollar is declining, leading to a significant rise in the opportunity cost of holding gold despite rising interest rates [1] - Central banks have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually from 2022 to 2024, indicating strong demand from central banks, financial institutions, and the public [1] Group 2 - If global central banks increase the proportion of gold in their foreign exchange reserves to 15%, the corresponding demand for gold could reach 5,000 tons, equivalent to one and a half years of global gold supply, which would significantly drive gold prices [1] - In the first half of this year, the demand for gold from the public and global central banks decreased by 20% year-on-year, but financial institutions in Europe and the US are significantly increasing their gold purchases [1] - Financial institutions have recognized that gold has shown characteristics of being insensitive to interest rates by 2025, suggesting a bullish outlook for gold prices as global interest rate cuts progress [1]
中金公司齐丁:黄金迎来2018年以来最大涨幅 背后是定价逻辑重构