美国突传利空！欧洲评级机构下调美国信用评级

Core Points - Scope Ratings downgraded the U.S. credit rating by one level to AA- due to ongoing government shutdown and deteriorating public finances [1][2] - The downgrade reflects weakened governance standards, which reduce policy predictability and increase the risk of policy missteps [2] - The U.S. debt level surpassed $38 trillion as of October 21, marking a significant increase from $37 trillion in mid-August [2][3] Group 1 - Scope Ratings' assessment is two levels lower than its larger competitors, Fitch, Moody's, and S&P Global Ratings [3] - The agency maintains a "stable" outlook for the U.S. rating, with balanced risks for potential upgrades or downgrades in the next 12 to 18 months [2] - The International Monetary Fund predicts that U.S. general government debt will reach 140% of GDP in the next four years, an increase of 15 percentage points from 2025 [3] Group 2 - The downgrade adds to the blemishes on the U.S. credit record, especially following Moody's downgrade in May [3] - Scope's analysts have warned that the government shutdown is a "negative credit event," although the likelihood of default remains low [3] - The potential decline in the U.S. dollar's status as a global reserve currency could reduce demand for U.S. Treasury securities [2]