平安银行(000001)：风险生成大幅改善

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Ping An Bank shows signs of improvement in profitability pressure and risk generation, with a focus on the recovery of balance sheet expansion and changes in corporate risk [1] Data Overview - For Q1 to Q3 of 2025, Ping An Bank's operating income and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.8% and 3.5% year-on-year, respectively, with a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 0.3 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points compared to H1 2025 [2] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.05%, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 9 percentage points to 230% [2] Profitability Pressure Improvement - The overall profitability pressure has continued to improve since Q2, driven by a stabilization and recovery in interest margins and increased contributions from impairment [3][4] - The average interest-earning assets decreased by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, with significant reductions in interbank and bill assets by 6.4% and 41.1%, respectively [4] Interest Margin Recovery - In Q3 2025, the interest margin increased by 3 basis points to 1.79%, with a year-on-year decline narrowing by 7 basis points compared to Q2 2025 [5][8] - The yield on assets decreased by 8 basis points to 3.40%, primarily due to a decline in loan rates across the industry, while the cost of liabilities improved by 13 basis points to 1.61% [8] Retail Transformation Deepening - Retail loans showed a slight increase in Q3 2025, marking the first halt in decline since Q1 2024, attributed to the ongoing pilot of mid-yield retail loans [9] - Wealth management business continued to grow, with the number of wealth clients reaching 1.4911 million, an increase of 1.1% quarter-on-quarter [9] Risk Generation Improvement - As of Q3 2025, the non-performing loan ratio, attention rate, and overdue rate remained stable, with the non-performing and attention combined TTM generation rate significantly decreasing by 52 basis points to 1.74% [10][11] - Retail non-performing loans continued to improve, while corporate non-performing loans showed volatility, necessitating close monitoring of risks in the corporate sector [11] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for Ping An Bank's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is expected to decline by 2.00%, followed by slight increases of 0.12% and 1.45% [12] - The target price is maintained at 14.00 CNY per share, corresponding to a 0.61x PB for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current price [12]