流感季或将提前！三价疫苗政采价持续走低，海外玩家“返场”，流感疫苗市场将如何变化？

Group 1: Flu Season Overview - The flu season for 2025 is expected to be on par with pre-pandemic levels, with an increase in flu patients reported recently [1][3] - The predominant strain this year is H3N2, which the public has lower immunity against compared to last year's H1N1 strain [3][4] - The flu season may start earlier than in previous years, as indicated by rising cases in countries like Japan, the UK, Germany, and Italy [3] Group 2: Vaccine Supply and Demand - There is a surge in flu vaccine demand in various regions, leading to situations where appointments are available but vaccines are not [5][7] - The government procurement price for trivalent vaccines has dropped to a historical low of 5.5 yuan per dose, while quadrivalent vaccines have maintained stable pricing [2][11] - Sanofi has resumed its supply to the Chinese market after a 10-month hiatus, but domestic manufacturers still dominate the market with a significantly higher number of vaccine batches released [2][10] Group 3: Vaccination Recommendations and Practices - Vaccination remains the most effective preventive measure against flu, with recommendations for annual vaccination to enhance protection [4][12] - Various community health centers report differing availability of vaccines, with some areas experiencing shortages while others have ample supply [5][9] - The price for quadrivalent vaccines has stabilized after previous fluctuations, with current prices ranging from 88 yuan to 319 yuan depending on the type [11][12] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The flu vaccine market in China is characterized as an incremental market with significant demand, and companies do not view Sanofi as a direct competitor [10][12] - The market is expected to gradually differentiate, with trivalent vaccines meeting the needs of the general public while quadrivalent vaccines target higher-end consumers [12][13] - Companies are optimistic about increasing awareness and willingness to vaccinate, which may lead to higher demand for flu vaccines in the future [12][13]