“人人都预期”的黄金崩盘发生了 现在人人都等着抄底？

Core Viewpoint - The recent crash in the gold market, with a 6.3% drop marking the largest single-day decline since 2013, was largely anticipated by market professionals [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The crash did not trigger panic; instead, it sparked a buying frenzy among retail investors globally, who viewed the price drop as a buying opportunity [3][5]. - Reports from dealers in Singapore and the U.S. indicated a significant increase in demand, with BullionStar's CEO noting it was their busiest day ever [5][6]. Group 2: Analyst Perspectives - Most precious metals analysts maintained their bullish outlook, viewing the price drop as a healthy correction to clear market excesses [7]. - Analysts from MKS Pamp SA and JPMorgan Chase expressed confidence that the price would stabilize and return to a robust upward trajectory, with JPMorgan predicting an average gold price exceeding $5,000 by Q4 next year [7]. Group 3: Concerns and Counterarguments - Despite the optimism, some analysts, including Michael Hartnett from Bank of America, raised concerns about the sustainability of the "devaluation trade" supporting gold prices, citing factors such as low U.S. Treasury yields and a budget surplus [9][11]. - Hartnett highlighted that the current market conditions may not support the prevailing narrative of shorting the dollar and going long on gold [9]. - Even bullish analysts acknowledged risks, including a potential slowdown in central bank purchases, which could impact the gold bull market [11].