新生人口持续创新低，倒逼日本政府升级政策供给

Core Insights - Japan's government has developed a multi-dimensional, systematic, and strategic top-level design to address the declining birth rate crisis, yet the total fertility rate has reached a historic low over the past 50 years, exacerbated by an aging population [1][8] Population Crisis - Japan's total fertility rate peaked at 2.14 in 1973 and has been on a downward trend since, with a projected birth population of 721,000 in 2024, a 5% decrease year-on-year, and a total fertility rate of 1.15, significantly below the global average of 2.2 and developed countries' average of 1.4 [2] - The number of newborns has been declining for 16 consecutive years, with 686,000 expected in 2024, falling below 700,000 for the first time, and the death toll is projected to reach 1.62 million in 2024, marking a 1.9% increase [2] Economic Impact - The low birth rate is a significant drag on Japan's economic growth, leading to a shrinking consumer market and a long-term labor supply shortage, with a record 342 companies facing bankruptcy due to labor shortages in 2024 [3] - By 2040, Japan is expected to face a labor shortage of 11 million, with social security expenditures projected to account for 24% of GDP by 2040 [3] Contributing Factors - Economic burdens, including stagnant growth and high living costs, are major factors suppressing the birth rate, with the average cost of raising a child exceeding 20 million yen [4] - The corporate work culture, characterized by long hours and a traditional male breadwinner model, further pressures families, making it difficult for women to balance work and motherhood [5] - Gender inequality and traditional gender roles contribute to declining birth rates, with a high percentage of educated women unwilling to enter unequal marriages [6] - Cultural shifts towards individualism and changing views on marriage and family are leading to lower marriage and birth rates among younger generations [6] - Regional disparities exacerbate the issue, with urban areas attracting young people while rural areas face severe population decline [7] Policy Responses - The Japanese government has implemented various policies to support childbirth, including financial incentives for families, childcare services, and work-life balance reforms [8][9][10] - Specific measures include one-time childbirth allowances, monthly child allowances, and free childcare services for certain age groups [8] - Work-life balance initiatives include parental leave policies, restrictions on overtime, and encouragement of flexible work arrangements [10] - Local governments are also implementing free medical services for children and plans for free high school education [11] - The government is increasing foreign talent intake through visa programs to mitigate labor shortages and boost population growth [12]