管涛：年内宏观政策或需适时加力

Group 1: Economic Overview - The overall economic operation in China has been stable this year, with notable highlights in both production and demand, but there is a clear weakness in consumption and investment since the third quarter, indicating insufficient endogenous growth momentum [1][2] - The actual GDP growth for the first three quarters is 5.2%, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [2] - The industrial sector has shown improvement, with the industrial added value for large enterprises growing by 6.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, and high-tech manufacturing growing by 9.6% [2] Group 2: External Trade and Policy Response - China's external trade has demonstrated resilience despite external pressures, with a 6.1% increase in overall exports year-on-year in the first three quarters, even as exports to the U.S. fell by 16.9% [3] - The broad deficit rate for the first three quarters is 8.7%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a proactive fiscal policy response to external economic challenges [3] Group 3: Consumption and Investment Trends - Social retail sales increased by 4.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with significant growth in categories like home appliances and furniture, but the growth rate has slowed down recently due to reduced government support [4][7] - Fixed asset investment has shown a downward trend, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.5% in September, marking the first negative growth since September 2020 [8] - The real estate market remains sluggish, with a 10.5% year-on-year decline in sales area in September, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to previous months [9] Group 4: Policy Measures and Future Outlook - The government is expected to implement more proactive fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate domestic demand, especially in light of the upcoming traditional consumption peak in the fourth quarter [11][12] - The recent Central Committee meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations, indicating a focus on maintaining economic recovery momentum [12][13]