Q4 2025 Outlook: Escaping the Reckoning?

Core Insights - CEO Jan van Eck expresses optimism about fiscal progress and market balance while emphasizing the importance of selectivity as AI evolves, credit tightens, and policy shifts continue [1][2] Group 1: AI and Technology - AI compute shortage is significant, with token demand increasing by 38 times, but chip and model efficiency are helping to balance supply [5] - Nvidia's growth rate and visible demand through 2027 suggest that its valuations may be justified, indicating it may not be overpriced [5] - Gaming is emerging as a surprising beneficiary of AI, with faster development and improved video quality potentially making it a major sector for growth [5] Group 2: Market Trends and Valuations - Nuclear valuations have reached high levels after exceptional returns, warranting caution [5] - OpenAI's financing remains a vulnerability as it becomes part of the new "Mag 8" [5] - The long-term case for gold remains strong due to central bank demand, fiscal strain, and inflation risk [5] Group 3: Credit and Fiscal Developments - Private credit is facing a quality test, highlighted by recent bankruptcies that emphasize the need for liquidity and strong underwriting [5] - Not all Business Development Companies (BDCs) are equal; liquidity and quality will differentiate successful firms from those lagging behind as market conditions tighten [5] - The U.S. deficit has narrowed to approximately 5.9% of GDP, indicating a modest but meaningful fiscal improvement [5]